All the permutations needed for clubs to earn promotion in the Welsh League

Despite some teams having just two games left, some teams have still plenty to play for.

The season is set to reach its climax next Saturday, but this weekend is big for the Welsh Football League scene.

Only Penybont’s promotion to the Welsh Premier League and Swansea University’s promotion to the FAW Championship South are two things which have been nailed down.

STM Sports have been denied the licence, so will have to appeal the Tier Two Licence outcome, if they are to achieve promotion.

Both teams in Division Two and Division Three have something to play for.

It could be a wild weekend in the fourth tier of Welsh football, with three teams all having a chance of promotion.

Division Two 

Swansea University: They’ve finished their season and have passed the Tier Two Licence criteria. They will be playing FAW Championship South football next season. They are hopeful of STM Sports losing their next two fixtures to Aberbargoed Buds and Pontardawe Town.

STM Sports: They’ve been deniedthe Tier Two Licence and will have to appeal if they are to earn promotion. They earned the right to promotion last week after beating Bridgend Street. Following a thrilling ten-goal draw against Caerau Ely on Wednesday, STM need a point for the title. They’re away at Aberbargoed Buds. They still have a game against Pontardawe Town to play next week though.

Caldicot Town: They completed their season over a month ago, they’ll be hopeful that a number of clubs can drop points. They’ve got the Tier Two Licence and may earn promotion, depending on the appeals process. A handful of results would have go their way.

Abergavenny Town: It’s simple on the field for Abergavenny. A win over promotion rivals Caerau Ely tomorrow would be enough to secure third place, unless Pontardawe Town can overturn a ten goal swing against Dinas Powys and STM Sports. 

They’ve not received the Tier Two Licence though and would have to appeal.

Caerau Ely: Having suffered a 96th minute equaliser, the Young Guns will have to beat Abergavenny Town to earn a maximum of 54 points. They can achieve promotion tomorrow if they beat Abergavenny Town and Pontardawe Town lose to Dinas Powys.

Failing that, they will have to beat Abergavenny Town tomorrow and hope Pontardawe Town don’t beat STM Sports, who could still be chasing a title.

Pontardawe Town: With two games remaining, Pontardawe Town have the most games left to achieve promotion. Whether the club would prefer points on the board rather than games to be played remains to be seen. The FAW Trophy finalists have got the Tier Two licence but face a tough task of promotion.

They face Dinas Powys at home tomorrow. A win there could move them up to 4th, but may not matter as they will still need to overturn Abergavenny’s goal difference, should they beat Caerau Ely.

If Andrew Stokes’ men can win both their games, with one coming against title chasing STM Sports, then they will be in a good position for promotion. 

 Division Three

Penydarren BGC: – They can earn a second consecutive promotion either this evening or tomorrow. They will be hopeful for a Ynysygerwn victory over Trefelin at Ynys Park this evening, which would confirm promotion.

However should Trefelin win then they can achieve promotion with a point away at Ely Rangers tomorrow. They can also win the league title by beating Rangers, The Cardiff side themselves are in a relegation battle, so it s all to play for.

Penydarren are in the best position to achieve promotion but with two league games remaining and a Cup final on Friday, the Merthyr club will have to navigate three games in as many days.

Trefelin BGC: The job is simple for Trefelin. If they beat Ynysygerwn this evening then they are up. 

Having missed out on goal difference to Bridgend Street last season, Richie Ryan’s side will be eager to right the wrongs of last year. 

It gets complicated for Trefelin. Should they only draw against League Cup finalists Ynysygerwn this evening, they would go level on points with Penydarren and would go ahead due to the virtue of more goals scored. They would have to hope for an Ely Rangers victory on Saturday, as well as a Treharris victory on Tuesday.

A possible draw would also give Penrhiwceiber Rangers an opening. All Penrhiwceiber would need to do is beat Panteg tomorrow at home, which would confirm promotion, meaning Trefelin would miss out if Penrhiwceiber claimed a victory and Penydarren got a point.

Penrhiwceiber Rangers: For Penrhiwceiber, they’re possibly in the worst position and are at a disadvantage. They’re hoping for a Trefelin slip up this evening as they can complete the job then tomorrow. 

They have a superior goal difference to Penydarren but the Miners have a game in hand. 

(Featured Image: Michael James)