Data experts predict how the Conference League will unfold for TNS, Shamrock Rovers, Chelsea, and Hearts
TNS and Petroub are expected to finish in the bottom three of the UEFA Conference League. (Image: Sam Eaden/FAW)
TNS have been given just a 6.9% chance of reaching the knockout stages of the UEFA Conference League, according to a supercomputer.
The Cymru Premier champions are competing in the group stages of a major European competition for the first time in their history. Still, computer boffins have dashed their hopes of making any progress.
Twitter accounts Football Rankings and Piotr Klimek have come together to formulate every team’s outcome in the competition this season. Chelsea have been given a 100% chance of finishing in the top 24, and have an 87.1% chance of finishing in the top eight, which would give them a bye to the next round.
TNS play their first match against Fiorentina this evening (October 3) and they are tipped to finish third. They’ve got a 99.9% probability of going through to the next round and should go through to the Round of 16.
As for their other opponents, Panathinaikos are one place behind Fiorentina, but there is a 26.7% greater chance of the Italian side finishing in the top eight over the Greek outfit. Djurgardens are the highest in 13th, and then there’s Shamrock Rovers in 25th, Astana in 26th and Celje in 27th.
If TNS are to progress to the knock-out rounds, they must finish in the top 24. They’re actually predicted to finish third from bottom with Petrocub and NIFL Premiership Larne the only two teams below them.
Petrocub beat TNS in UEFA Europa League qualifying back in August. The Moldovan champions won 1-0 in the first leg, and then at Park Hall there was a goalless draw with Jordan Williams sent off.
The competition has already got underway with Portuguese side Vitoria SC defeating Celje on Wednesday and İstanbul Basaksehir losing 2-1 to Rapid Wien.
Scottish Premiership side Hearts who play Dinamo Minsk in Azerbaijan tonight, are the only other British team expected to go through, but it will be close. They’re expected to pip League of Ireland champions Shamrock Rovers to the final spot, with Stephen Bradley’s men finishing 25th.
Predicted Conference League table (xPts, xGD, Chance of Top 8, Chance of Top 16, and Chance of Top 24)
Chelsea – 14.35, 13.82, 87.1%, 98.9%, 100%
Real Betis – 14.34, 13.07, 85.8%, 98.2%, 99.9%
Fiorentina – 14.03, 13.13, 82.8%, 97.8%, 99.9%
Panathiniakos – 12.12, 8.55, 56.1%, 89.1%, 98.6%
Gent – 11.87, 7.27, 51.6%, 89.1 %, 98.6%
FC Copenhagen – 11.75, 6.80, 48.8%, 85.3%, 97.6%
Heidenheim – 11.63, 7.12, 47.2%, 85.3%, 94.6%
Molde – 11.60, 6.64, 46.3%, 81.%, 94.6%
Vitoria S.C. – 11.36, 5.39, 42.91%, 78.9%, 93.6%
Cercle Brugge – 11.36, 5.39, 42.9%, 78.9%, 95.4%
Rapid Wien – 10.56, 4.88, 31.3%, 71.3%, 94.4%
Omonia Nicosia – 10.33, 3.36, 27.9%, 68.0%, 87.7%
Djurgarden – 9.84, 3.44, 23.3%, 60.3%, 83.4%
Lugano – 9.88, 2.27, 24.3%, 59.9%, 85.7%
Legia Warszawa – 9.57, 2.35, 19.3%, 56.9%, 85.0%
Istanbul Basakehir – 9.21, 2.21, 16.3%, 51.5%, 85.0%
LASK – 9.18, 2.19, 17.1%, 51.1%, 84.0%
Olimpija Ljubljana – 8.70, 0.70, 10.5%, 43.1%, 79.8%
APOEL Nicosia – 8.62, 0.60, 10.5%, 40.4%, 78.3%
St.Gallen – 8.55, 0.23, 9.3%, 38.5%, 79.1%
Pafos – 8.07, -.1.74, 6.2%, 31.6%, 72.7%
Jagiellonia Bialystok – 7.70, -.1.84, 5.1%, 27.3%, 66.3%
Mlada Boleslav – 7.57, -1.46, 4.8%, 26.3%, 64.8%
Hearts – 7.68, -.399, 2.8%, 25.0%, 65.1%
Shamrock Rovers – 6.89, -3.09, 3.9%, 20.2%, 53.9%
Astana – 6.17, -4.37, 2.0%, 12.5%, 42.8%
Noah – 6.35, -5.61, 1.1%, 11.6%, 43.6%
Celje – 5.92, -6.51, 0.4%, 7.4%, 35.0%
TSC Backa Topola – 5.71, -6.10, 1.1%, 8.4%, 33.6%
Dinamo Minsk – 5.09, -7.65, 0.5%, 4.6%, 24.%
HKJ Helsinki – 4.63, -10.22, 0.1%, 2.2%, 16.8%
Borac Banja Luka – 4.05, -7.86, 0.4%, 3.6%, 16.8%
Vikingur Reykjavik – 4.17, -9.70, 0.2%, 1.8%, 13.6%
TNS- 3.03, -11.95, 0.1%, 1.1%, 6.9%
Petrocub – 2.86, -12.30, 0.0%, 0.7%, 5.5%
Larne – 2.30, -14.77, 0.0%, 0.2%, 2.5%
