Cymru South: Who can win promotion to Cymru Premier in three-way race?
ABERYSTWYTH, CEREDIGION, WALES - 1st MARCH 2026 - Liam Bishop of Caerau Ely AFC celebrates after Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau Ely AFC in Round 24 of the JD Cymru South at Park Avenue, Aberystwyth (Pic by Sam Eaden/FAW)
That elusive third spot in the Cymru South is still up for grabs after a weekend of shock results. As the race for promotion to the Cymru Premier heats up.
Prior to last week, Aberystwyth Town led the charge, being one point ahead of Ammanford in fourth, and two ahead of Caerau Ely in fifth. This was after Caerau Ely had the chance to reclaim the last promotion spot, but fell to a 96th-minute winner against Carmarthen time as they lost 4-3.
Who is in the driving seat for promotion?
Ammanford welcomed Aberystwyth in their last home game, in which they secured a massive win. They leapfrogged Aberystwyth into third, courtesy of goals from Matthew Delaney and a 10th goal of the season for young forward Daniel John.
This past Sunday, there were more big results, as Aberystwyth hosted Caerau Ely and Ammanford travelled to Aberavon to face Afan Lido, knowing a win for them would put them in a great position, with at least one, if not both, of Aberystwyth and Caerau, dropping points.
However, Caerau romped to a 4-0 away win at Park Avenue, while a brilliant second-half performance from Afan Lido, saw them defeat Ammanford 3-1. This now means that all three clubs have played 23 matches, with there being just three points separating them all.
Ammanford still remain in that ‘golden’ third slot on 41 points, while Caerau sit just one point behind them. After back-to-back defeats, Aberystwyth are on 39 points, with a trip to Trefelin looming on Saturday afternoon.
What does the run-in look like?
As touched upon, Aberystwyth travel to Ynys Park on Saturday to play league leaders Trefelin. Trefelin have been unbeaten since the second game of the season, where they lost to Newport City 2-0 at home, and have an imperial defensive record this season, boasting fifteen clean sheets and just ten goals conceded in 22 league games this season. Aberystwyth have to also travel to second-placed Cambrian United, who have been the league leaders for the majority of the season, only losing one home game all season.
Tom Mason of Aberystwyth Town celebrates scoring his sides first goal.
Newport City v Aberystwyth Town in the JD Cymru South at Newport Stadium on the 31st January 2026. (Pic by Lewis Mitchell/FAW)
As for Ammanford, their two most notable remaining fixtures also feature Cambrian, who they host on the 24th of March, as well as hosting Newport City in their penultimate league fixture. Ammanford have only won one of their last five games, with their extremely impressive defensive record taking a hit in that time.
Caerau Ely have the more favourable remaining seven games, on paper at least. They have to play six of the current bottom seven sides, including home games against Cwmbran Celtic and Ynyshir Albions- the current bottom two. After a tough run of four straight games, Caerau will now look to apply the pressure to Ammanford, who sit faintly above them.
Who are the ‘outsiders’ for Promotion?
With the games dwindling, it seems more and more likely that it will be between the three teams sat between third and fifth in the table, you cannot count out Carmarthen Town and Newport City just yet, and here’s why:
Both sides met on the weekend, holding each other to an extremely entertaining 4-4 draw in Newport. Both sides contain high-quality players and plenty of experience, but have been subject to far too many draws this season, holding them at least two results behind the other three.
Carmarthen have very winnable fixtures, but have played a game more, whereas Newport have a slightly tougher run, with the last three games of their season being very challenging. A trip to Gabalfa to play Cardiff Dracs, before a trip west to Ammanford, and then welcoming Trefelin on the final day will prove a huge challenge for the steelmen. However, they do boast quality throughout their side, particularly in attacking areas, and their January transfer window has seemed to make a real impact in their firepower across the pitch.
Next up for Carmarthen is a trip to Trethomas Bluebirds, while Newport will host Baglan Dragons.
(Pic by Geraint Nicholas/FAW)
The full run-down of what happened in last week’s games in the Cymru South.
Ammanford
Dracs (H) – 8th
Llantwit (A) – 9th
Baglan (H) – 12th
Treowen (A) – 10th
Newport City (H) – 7th
Cwmbran Celtic (A) – 16th
(TBC) Cambrian United (H) – 2nd
AVERAGE LEVEL OF OPPOSITION: 9.14
Aberystwyth Town
Trefelin (A) – 1st
Trethomas Bluebirds (H) – 13th
Cambrian United (A) – 2nd
Afan Lido (H) – 14th
Llantwit Major (H) – 9th
Cwmbran Celtic (A) – 16th
Ynyshir Albions (A) – 15th
AVERAGE LEVEL OF OPPOSITION: 10.0
Caerau Ely
Afan Lido (H) – 14th
Treowen Stars (H) – 10th
Baglan Dragons (A) – 12th
Cwmbran Celtic (H) – 16th
Llantwit Major (A) – 9th
Ynyshir Albions (H) – 15th
Pontypridd United (A) – 11th
Average level of opposition: 12.43
