How Wales’ coefficient looks bleak as Cymru Premier set to lose fourth European spot

Wales could be set to lose a European place for the 2022/23 European qualifiers.

The league currently receives three Europa League berths on top of the Champions League spot for the Cymru Premier winners.

Wales are predicted to drop from 47th to 52nd in the UEFA Coefficient Rankings, which will see them lose a European spot.

It means the Europa League play-offs, usually held in May, could be scrapped, with the runners-up of the Cymru Premier and the winners of the Welsh Cup, only gaining entry to Europe.

Northern Ireland, who were ranked 52nd in 2019 lost their fourth European spot, however, due to the NIFL Premiership not playing to a conclusion, no playoffs were needed.

Such a drop will also see Wales have to qualify for the UEFA Champions League through the preliminary round, meaning the 2021/22 Cymru Premier winners will have to win twice in a four-teamed group to even reach the same stage Connah’s Quay did on Wednesday.

Following Barry’s 5-1 defeat to NSÍ Runavík tonight, this is the calculations for the UEFA coefficient.

*Note* – Faroese champions KÍ Klaksvík are in action tomorrow against Slovan Bratislava tomorrow. However, Bratislava will be playing their reserve squad. #JDCymruPremier pic.twitter.com/gZ2ucn3Cvh

— Jordan A Jones (@JordsAlexJones) August 20, 2020

A change to the structure of European competitions will see Wales unlikely to participate in the Europa League for a considerable time.

From the 2021/22 season, the UEFA Europa Conference League, a new European competition which will work underneath the Champions League and Europa League.

Countries in the top fifty of the association ranking will have three teams enter the new competition. 

Nations placed from 51st to 55th in the coefficient rankings will be allocated two places in the Conference League, going through a similar qualifying phase to what they do in European competitions now.

So who is left to represent Wales in Europe to try and preserve our four spots?

Connah’s Quay, who bravely fought but succumbed to a two-goal defeat to Bosnian champions FK Sarajevo.

Despite defeat on their Champions League debut, they will drop into the Champions Path of the UEFA Europa League.

They will face one of the 19 other teams who were knocked out of the Champions League. The deciding factor on the strength of their opponents will rely on the result of the qualifier between Faroese champions KI Klaksvik and Slovak League winners Slovan Bratislava.

The game was moved to a later date after a member of Slovan’s backroom staff had returned a positive COVID-19 test.

Now the Slovak champions will be without their manager and will have to field a reserve team.

A win for KI Klaksvik would see the Nomads become unseeded and face some difficult opponents. If Slovan Bratislava were to win, the Nomads would be seeded.

Nomads opponents if Slovan Bratislava beat KÍ: KI Klaksvik, Europa, Ararat-Armenia, KuPS, KR, Sileks, Floriana, Tre Fiori, Drtia, Iner Club d’Escaldes,

Nomads opponents if KÍ beat Slovan Bratislava: Astana, Dundalk, Slovan Bratislava, Dinamo Tbilisi, Fola Esch, Djungardens IF, Linfield, Buducnost Podogorica, Flora, Riga.

In the same competition, NSÍ Runavík’s 5-1 victory over Barry Town United saw the Faroes leapfrog Estonia and Wales in the coefficient rankings.

Barry’s game last night was a chance to get some breathing ground on the countries around Wales, instead the situation worsened.

Instead, we are now pitting even more hope on Bala, Connah’s Quay and The New Saints to deliver this summer.

(Featured Image: Lewis Mitchell)