Following the narrow home defeat to unbeaten group seeds, Norway, Wales’ hopes of a 2022 European Championships play-off place are no longer in our own hands.
Group positions are decided by points and then by head-to-head record. Only if those are level are goal difference and goals scored considered.
Norway have now automatically qualified as group winners, but runners-up, and a play-off place, is still to be decided.
Having drawn twice with Northern Ireland (2-2 in Newport, and 0-0 in Belfast), the away goals mean the advantage is with Northern Ireland if they and Wales finish the group level on points.
Wales (Played 7, 11pts) and Northern Ireland (Played 6, 8pts) will end up level on 14 points if they win their remaining matches.
Both play Belarus at home at the end of November, with NI also due to face the Faroe Islands at home.
For Wales to finish second, they need a better result against Belarus than Northern Ireland get.
Northern Ireland play Belarus first. If they win, they will finish above Wales, and the following matches become effectively a dead-rubber – on the assumption that NI beat the Faroe Islands at home (Played 7, 0pts, 0 goals scored, -37 Goal Difference).
However, if the NI game is drawn then Wales will finish ahead of them by defeating Belarus a few days later, securing the play-off place.
Wales will still need three points, even if Belarus win in Northern Ireland.
That’s because a further permutation is that if Belarus win in both Northern Ireland and Wales, then they finish second themselves. Or, if they win and draw on their away double-header, then it comes down to their final match – away in Norway in February.
To avoid that possibility, Wales need a home win over Belarus.
All that is conjecture, though.
For now, the only game that matters is the Northern Ireland v Belarus match in Belfast, and our hope that the home side doesn’t take all three points.
(Featured Image: Will Cheshire)
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