The Cymru Premier coefficient situation after the latest qualifiers
Jamie Insall of Connahs Quay at full time. Connahs Quay v FC Prishtina in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round at Park Avenue on the 29th July 2021. Credit: Lewis Mitchell
The Cymru Premier coefficient situation has been a big talking point this summer after four Welsh clubs participated in the UEFA Europa Conference League for the first time.
UEFA’s new third-tier competition has offered plenty of new opportunities for clubs across Europe and teams from then the Welsh top flight have taken to the competition.
But ultimately, every time this year comes around, there are questions on the purpose of the league, suggestions of summer football, and other changes.
For this year at least, we will not have a playoff spot for a European spot, due to years of accumulative below-par performances, so how close are we to regaining that spot?
What’s the current situation?
After Wales finished in 51st place in UEFA’s coefficient rankings last season, the number of Welsh teams competing in Europe next season will be reduced from four to three.
It has not yet been announced whether the play-offs in the Cymru Premier will be scrapped. Countries must submit domestic cup winners (the Welsh Cup) and a runner-up to European competitions.
It has been mooted that the end-of-season play-offs could be for a place in the SPFL Trust Trophy, taking away the prize of winning the Nathaniel MG Cup and implementing it in the league system.
In previous years, we have seen those who finished in the top two also win the Welsh Cup, which could offer the spot to third, but that is based on possibilities, and is it not for definite.
However, after victories to Connah’s Quay and TNS last week, Wales are currently ranked 50th in the coefficient table. This would see the number of teams qualifying for Europe from Wales return to four, with one team going to the Champions League and three in the Conference League, as we have seen in recent years.
How are the points calculated?
A nation’s coefficient points are calculated using an average of the points each club has won. Every club is awarded one point for a win in qualifying, with half a point being awarded for a draw and nothing for a loss. Clubs also get additional points based on the qualifying rounds they exit, but these do not count towards a nation’s ranking. These totals are then added to the totals from the previous four seasons to work out an overall score.
Neither Bala nor Newtown picked up any points this season after they both lost their Conference League qualifiers to Larne and Dundalk respectively. As Wales’ points are based on the average, this left Connah’s Quay and TNS with a mountain to climb.
Connah’s Quay earned half a point for their draw against Alashkert, and despite losing the overall tie, they were awarded another point for defeating FC Prishtina in the second leg. Therefore, Connah’s Quay have 1.5 points.
TNS earned 1.5 points from the Glentoran games, with a draw in the first leg and a win in the second leg. They then earned a further two points for beating Kauno Zalgiris in both legs, making their total 3.5 points.
The average for the four teams this season is therefore 1.250 points. Wales has four points from the previous four seasons, so the total for this season is currently 5.250.
What needs to happen?
Of course, in an ideal world, TNS would defeat Viktoria Plzen twice and Wales would rise up the table. However, if TNS fail to get a result, we will need to rely on other teams losing to ensure that a place in the top 50 is secured.
Only two of the five nations ranked below Wales in the rankings can win any additional points. Estonia is represented by Flora Tallinn, who face Omonia Nikosia in the Europa League. Gibraltar is represented by Lincoln Red Imps, who will take on Slovan Bratislava in the Europa League. Should those teams fail to win their ties, they will drop down to the Europa Conference League, and have another chance to pick up coefficient points in the final round of qualifiers.
Unless TNS can pull off an unlikely win against Viktoria Plzen, Wales can afford for Lincoln Red Imps to win a maximum of one point from their four qualifiers – which is equivalent to one win or two draws. This would leave Gibraltar’s total score at 5.166, just short of Wales’ 5.250. If they pick up 1.5 or more points, and Wales fails to pick up any additional points, Wales will drop out of the top 50.
There’s slightly more leeway with Estonia’s Flora. They need to pick up two points from their four games to overtake Wales.
Iceland is currently ranked directly above Wales, with 0.125 points more. Their only remaining representatives are Breiðablik, who face Aberdeen in the third qualifying round of the Conference League. If TNS can get a draw against Plzen, and Breiðablik fail to pick up any points, Wales will leapfrog Iceland due to the higher coefficient points total last season.
The worst-case scenario however is that if Estonia and Gibraltar pick up points and Wales do not then it is possible that Wales could drop below 52nd. It would mean that the 2021/22 Cymru Premier winners would enter at the preliminary round stage of the UEFA Champions League.
Dropping into the preliminary round could offer an opportunity for the champions to pick up some much-needed coefficient points, as well as additional money for the winning club, however it would make qualifying for further rounds trickier.
