Wales’ coefficient situation as New Saints try to claw back fourth spot
Declan McManus of The New Saints celebrates scoring his sides fourth goal. The New Saints v FC Viktoria Plzeň in the UEFA Europa Conference League 3rd qualifying round at the Cardiff City Stdaium on the 5th August 2021. Credit: Lewis Mitchell
After The New Saints’ incredible 4-2 victory over Viktoria Plzen last week, Wales’ co-efficient status is currently looking a fair bit healthier.
Wales have now leapfrogged Iceland, and are currently in 49th place.
Previously, the only teams below Wales that could rise above Wales were Gibraltar and Estonia. Gibraltar are represented by Lincoln Red Imps and Estonia by Flora Tallinn.
Both of these sides will drop down to the Conference League play-off round, after losing their Europa League qualifying ties.
Flora Tallinn lost 1-0 to Omonia Nikosia in the first leg. The Estonians turned things round in the second leg, winning 2-1 in normal time, but they were defeated on penalties. However, their second leg victory did give them one coefficient point. Flora will play either Shamrock Rovers or Teuta in the next round.
Lincoln Red Imps lost 3-1 to Slovan Bratislava in the first leg. The Imps earned half a coefficient point in their second leg with a 1-1 draw. Red Imps will face either Riga or Hibernians in the next round.
In additional positive news for Wales, Icelandic side Breidablik Kópavogur lost 3-2 at home to Aberdeen in their first-leg clash. TNS’ victory has now helped Wales rise above Iceland in the table. As it stands, if one of Gibraltar or Estonia earn more points than Wales from the remaining qualifiers, it’ll be Iceland that drops out of the top 50, not Wales.
So as it stands, Wales are 0.125 points ahead of Iceland, and 0.459 points ahead of both Gibraltar and Estonia. If Breidablik earn a draw on Thursday, and TNS lose, Iceland will climb above Wales. The two countries will be level on points, but as Iceland’s total from this season will be higher, they will have the advantage. However, a defeat for Breidablik will guarantee that Wales will finish above Iceland.
If TNS lose by more than two goals and get knocked out, then there’s still a bit of leeway to ensure a top 50 finish. Both Lincoln Red Imps and Flora would need to pick up 1.5 points from their final qualifiers – the equivalent of a win and a draw. If only one of those teams manages this, and as long as Breidablik lose on Thursday, then a top 50 finish will be guaranteed.
If TNS can hold on to their lead in the second leg, they will go through to the final qualifying round for the Conference League. They would face either CSKA Sofia or NK Osijek – and as it stands, Sofia have a 4-2 lead from the first leg.
If TNS then proceed to the Conference League proper, they will add at least 2.5 additional points to their club coefficient total, although these points will not be added to Wales’ total. Any points earned in the competition proper are worth twice as much as the qualifiers, so a draw would be worth a point and a victory would be worth two points.
What about next season?
Whilst we know Wales will only have three teams in Europe next season, it’s currently looking relatively healthy for next season’s coefficient table. The total from the 2016/17 season – a disappointing 0.500 points – will no longer be counted, and as it stands Wales will be starting out in 47th place.
Only having three teams could be a blessing in disguise for the coefficients, because any victory would be worth more points for Wales’ total. The league champions will also have two additional games in which they could earn more coefficient points in the Champions League preliminary qualifiers.
For example, Linfield were in the preliminary qualifiers last season, but two victories for them helped amass a total of 2.833 coefficient points for Northern Ireland, who are now up to 41st in the coefficient table.
