The key new tactics from Wales in latest World Cup qualifiers

On the 24th of March Cymru kicked off their World Cup qualifying campaign at the Den Dreef Stadion, Leuven. A Belgian side ranked number 1 in the FIFA World rankings came back from Harry Wilson’s excellent opener, to record a 3-1 victory. The Cymru back 3 of Lawrence, Rodon and Mepham unable to stifle the likes of De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. 

Cymru have played a lot of football since that night, including a run to the knockouts at the European Championships, and they have played almost all of it with a back 4. 

With Belgium now very likely to get the only automatic qualifying spot in the group, the latest qualifying matches away to play-off rivals the Czech Republic and then Estonia, were always going to be crucial for Wales to get a qualifying playoff at home in Cardiff. Manager Rob Page decided it was time to bring the back 3 formation out of hibernation once again. 

The back 3 formation gives you the option of dropping wingbacks deep and playing a flat back 5, denying the opposition space or width near your goal. If you saw Wales’ team sheet and thought we might be looking to sit back and make it a tight affair however, you’d have been very wrong. The game was one of those rare contests where both teams continue to chase the win until the final whistle. It was an end to end contest high on drama. Wales racked up 17 shots, and the Czechs 13 of their own. Wales finished ahead on expected goals metric (xG) 1.90 to 1.38, and would likely have won it 2-1 but for goalkeeper Danny Wards unfortunate own goal. 

Initially Ramsey occupied the more advanced role of the 3 central midfielders for Wales, and drifted wherever he could influence the game most. His opener was an excellent counter attacking goal which he started before sprinting 75% the length of the pitch to apply the finish. As Wales chased an equaliser Harry Wilson came on for Joe Morrell, and his pass set up Dan James on 69 minutes. 

Against the Czech Republic a number of players showed versatility they maybe hadn’t been given credit for previously. Dan James is usually an out and out winger, scaring defenders with his pace out wide and regularly getting to the byeline. Played in a front 2 he showed great awareness between the lines, drifting into half space on both sides and making intelligent runs in central areas. Sorba Thomas, normally a right sided winger, didn’t look out of place at left wingback especially as on his international debut. Even Chris Mepham at right centre-back looked adept driving forward into advanced spaces wide on the right. 

Most exciting of all however is Page looking to play Ramsey and Wilson centrally together in the midfield 3 of this 3-5-2. Both players are conventionally number 10s, but their games are well-rounded enough that out of possession they can press/tackle like centre midfielders and in-possession can help recycle the ball in tight areas, both vital if you are playing more as a number 8 than a number 10. Then once Wales are attacking, their more recognised strengths come into play. 

Wales started the Estonia game with many of the players that had come on vs Czech Republic. Roberts, Thomas and Wilson all kept their places as Wales again set out looking for goals. Both sides played 3 at the back formations. This can lead to teams cancelling each other out, as the wingbacks nullify each other from the game, and leave it being played mainly in congested central areas. However the game was again entertaining, being open and played at frantic pace, with Estonia often looking to counter-attack, and then throwing fresh attackers on for the final 10 minutes chasing an equaliser. 

Joe Rodon, Connor Roberts, Ramsey and Keiffer Moore had all missed the 0-0 draw with Estonia in Cardiff last month. Even with these players back for Wales however, Estonia again looked a solid outfit. Estonia were more deserving of a point in Tallinn than in Cardiff if we look at the xG, (1.59 v 1.16 to Wales in this game and 2.12 v 0.62 to Wales in the 0-0 draw in Cardiff). After being unlucky not to get a win in Prague, Wales held on for the 3 points here thanks to a great save from Danny Ward. 

Overall then an exciting and promising weekend for the Cymru mens national side. That Cymru were playing away in Prague and deserved to beat a Czech side who had made the European quarter finals in the summer, while missing key players such as Bale and Ben Davies, is encouraging for Welsh football. That 4 players from the back 5 vs Estonia were under 23, with Connor Roberts the old man at 26, also bodes well. Finally, in 2 games where Cymru were unlucky to only get 4 points, manager Rob Page deserves a lot of credit for the key tactical change of reverting back to the 3 centre-back formation. 

Four more points against Belarus and then Belgium at the Cardiff City Stadium in November likely gets Cymru that home playoff, and a step closer to Qatar 2022.