Devastating UEFA prediction as Cymru Premier set to lose UECL spot
OSWESTRY, ENGLAND - 18 JULY 2023: The New Saints' Rory Holden looks on as BK Hackens Momodou Sonko scores Hackens 2nd goal of the game ti win 0-2 during the UEFA Champions League first qualifying round 2nd leg fixture between Cymru premier’s The New Saints FC & Swedens BK Häcken at Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry, England (Pic by John Smith/FAW)OSWESTRY, ENGLAND - 18 JULY 2023: The New Saints' Rory Holden looks on as BK Hackens Momodou Sonko scores Hackens 2nd goal of the game ti win 0-2 during the UEFA Champions League first qualifying round 2nd leg fixture between Cymru premier’s The New Saints FC & Swedens BK Häcken at Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry, England (Pic by John Smith/FAW)
The Cymru Premier is in danger of losing its fourth European spot, because of poor results in recent years.
Current projections have Wales dropping down from 49th to 51st and they are dangerously close to being overtaken by Andorra. Both Bert Kassies and Football Coefficient are predicting bad news for Welsh clubs, and it could get worse before it gets better.
It would have a devastating effect for the non-full-time teams, who would lose an opportunity of European football, and the near £200,000 windfall which comes with it.
Why are Wales near to closing a spot?
Ultimately, Welsh clubs just haven’t picked up the results required this season and in previous years. Connah’s Quay suffered 2-0 defeats to KA Akureyri, meanwhile, Penybont lost 3-1 to FC Santa Coloma on their European debut. TNS failed to get any points against BK Hacken losing 5-1 on aggregate, with Haverfordwest County the only club getting a win in the first qualifying round, beating KF Shkendija 1-0 in the second leg, before winning on penalties.
A surprise victory for Inter Club d’Escaldes over Hibernian, along with Athletic Escaldes and FC Santa Coloma progressing to the second round stage means they have a realistic chance of overtaking Wales. Coloma beat Penybont 3-1 on aggregate and only lost 2-0 to Montenegrin outfit Sutjeska, but the result sees Montenegro close the gap on both.
San Marino, Gibraltar, North Macedonia, and Andorra are the only three countries below Wales at the moment. San Marino have Tre Penne left in the competition, and Gibraltar have the Lincoln Red Imps, but Tre Penne lost 3-0 to Valmiera and the Red Imps have a bye to the third qualifying round, where they will face tough opposition.
Wales can at least give themselves a bit of a chance if Haverfordwest and TNS can get positive results next week. If Haverfordwest can replicate what they did against Shkendija and win the second leg they’ll stand a chance of progressing and bank some coefficient points. TNS drew 1-1 with FC Swift Hesperange, and a win in 90 minutes would be good news.
Current predictions
- 50th: Montenegro – 5.708 – 1 UECL, 3 UECL
- 51st: Wales – 5.667 – 1 UCL, 2 UECL
- 52nd: Andorra – 5.667 – 1 UCL, 2 UECL
- 53rd: North Macedonia – 5.500 – 1 UCL, 2 UECL
- 54th Gibraltar – 4.959 – 1 UCL, 2 UECL
- 55th: San Marino – 1.833 – 1 UCL, 2 UECL
A change in the Cymru Premier format…
The Football Association of Wales is conducting a review of the Cymru Premier and it’s current league structure, but it is unclear as to when any amendments to the amount of teams and the format will be implemented.
Currently, there are 12 teams in the Cymru Premier, with 22 regular season games played and then the division is split into two conferences comprising of a top six and the bottom six. The league winners qualify for the Champions League, the runners-up for the Europa Conference League, and then the Welsh Cup winners take the third qualifying spot, and the play-off winners the fourth.
In recent years the Welsh Cup winners have tended to be TNS, and so the team who finished third have qualified automatically. It has meant that the team in fourth has hosted the team in seventh and fifth play against fourth.
Back in the 2020/21 season, the format of the league remained, and instead, the play-offs were for a place in the SPFL Trust Trophy, with Caernarfon Town beating Flint Town United. The prize for qualifying for the Scottish competition is usually for the Nathaniel MG Cup winner, and for the 2023/24 season, Bala Town will represent Wales. It is likely that the play-offs would remain, and the play-off prize would revert back to the SPFL Trust Trophy place, but that is nowhere near what European qualification means to a Welsh club.
